2023 raw material production peak hit
◆ Propylene
In 2022, the domestic propylene production capacity increased rapidly, with a total of 5.74 million tons/year of new production capacity, and the total production capacity reached 56.68 million tons/year, an increase of 11.3%. The output was 43.338 million tons, up 4.4 percent year-on-year.
2023-2025 is still the peak stage of propylene production capacity, with PDH as the production path of propylene production capacity will be intensively put into production, it is expected that in 2023 China's new propylene production capacity of 10.17 million tons/year, reaching 67.938 million tons/year, an increase of 19.9%.
◆ Glycol
In 2022, China's new ethylene glycol production capacity of 5.8 million tons/year (including 2.8 million tons/year of coal ethylene glycol), exit capacity of 1.52 million tons/year, the total production capacity of 2.537 million tons/year, an increase of 20.3%; The output was 13.248 million tons, up 11.3% year on year.
In 2023, a total of 7 domestic projects, a total of 4.5 million tons/year of ethylene glycol will be put into production, of which 1.8 million tons/year of coal ethylene glycol, the total production capacity will be close to 30 million tons/year, an annual increase of up to 18%.
◆ Paraxylene (PX)
In 2022, China's total PX production capacity will be 34.67 million tons/year, an increase of 9.7%. The output was 24.75 million tons, up 14.6 percent year-on-year. At present, PX production capacity under construction or planned to be built in China is 12.7 million tons/year, and the total production capacity is expected to reach 42.37 million tons/year by the end of 2023, an increase of more than 20%.
With a large number of production capacity continues to put into operation, it is expected that by the end of 2025, China's PX production capacity will exceed 46 million tons/year, and the self-sufficiency rate will be further improved, but considering the overall PX supply in Asia, the competition between China's PX industry and neighboring countries will be more intense.
◆ Refined terephthalic acid (PTA)
In 2022, the new PTA capacity of 7.35 million tons/year, excluding 3.39 million tons/year of failed capacity, a net increase of 3.96 million tons/year, the total production capacity of 70.25 million tons/year, an increase of 6.0%; The output was 53.13 million tons, up 0.6% year-on-year.
At present, the domestic PTA capacity in the proposed construction of more than 36 million tons/year, 2023 is expected to increase the capacity of 8.25 million tons/year, capacity utilization will further decline.
◆ Polyethylene (PE)
In 2022, the new production capacity was 1.45 million tons/year, reaching 29.81 million tons/year, an increase of 5.1%. Most of the new production capacity was put into operation in the first half of the year, and the production capacity was effectively released, with the output of 25.316 million tons, an increase of 8.7%.
In the next five years, there are 33 projects planned and under construction, with a total capacity of 24.58 million tons/year, it is expected that in 2023, the domestic new polyethylene production capacity of 5 million tons/year, by 2025, China's polyethylene production capacity is expected to exceed 50 million tons/year, with the ability to meet domestic demand.
◆ Polypropylene (PP)
In 2022, China's new polypropylene production capacity of 2.8 million tons/year, reaching 34.96 million tons/year, an increase of 8.7%; The output was 29.655 million tons, up 1.3% year-on-year.
By 2025, there will be 52 new and planned projects with a total capacity of 31.18 million tons/year, of which 19 projects with a total capacity of 9.55 million tons/year are expected to be put into operation in 2023, with a total capacity of 400,000 tons/year.
◆ Polyvinyl chloride (PVC)
In 2022, China's PVC production capacity increased slightly by 970,000 tons/year, and the total production capacity reached 2.8 million tons/year; Output was 20.9 million tons, down 1.3 percent year-on-year.
It is expected that in 2023, China will have a new PVC production capacity of 1 million tons/year, an increase of 3.6%, and domestic demand will increase slightly, reaching 20 million tons.
◆ Polycarbonate (PC)
In 2022, China has a total of five PC new production projects, with a total capacity of 800,000 tons/year, excluding long-term discontinued projects, the total production capacity of 3.2 million tons/year, an increase of 29.6%; The output was 1.78 million tons, up 36.9% year-on-year; Capacity utilization increased 13.9 percentage points year-on-year to 55.6%.
In the next five years, there are 11 projects proposed or under construction, with a total capacity of 1.68 million tons/year. It is expected that in 2023, the new production capacity will be 300,000 tons/year, and the total production capacity will reach 3.5 million tons/year. With the growing market demand and the increase of downstream import substitution, the capacity utilization rate is expected to be further improved.
It has to be said that in recent years, due to the "oil reduction and increase" of the entire refining industry, after the peak of chemical production capacity construction, there may be a phased surplus or industry-wide surplus situation. Many new chemical materials, fine chemical products, their own market is small, as long as there is a breakthrough in technology, there will be a rush, leading to overcapacity, and into a price war, product profits thin, and even losses.
